The challenge

A multi-national retailer was contemplating to re-brand their entire estate in 5 countries. Due to the vast amounts of investment required they wanted to know what incremental volumes and price uplifts, if any, a re-branding would bring from customers and non-customers. What the overall ROI would be that they could expect and finally they also wished to know what a re-branding would do to the overall brand value of the company.

What we did

In step 1 we designed a comprehensive survey that captured people’s circumstances: demographics, how far they had to travel to the outlet, how often they would carry out these types of trips on weekdays/weekends and so on. We included questions about what features they recalled the outlet of Brand X to have, what was important to them as well as how they rated this particular retailer and competitors on these dimensions. Price perceptions were also included because we wanted to understand whether price would inhibit anybody from switching. Finally we asked them if the outlet of brand X they used most often was closed, which one they would use instead.

In Step 2 we integrated the survey data with company specific data such as daily pricing, sales, market shares, turnover by outlet to run two types of analysis:

The first type was an overall rating (derived importance) modelling. However we knew that in retail this tends to result in overinflated estimates of switching behaviour because it does not adequately account for the inertia created by travel time and convenience. We therefore also incorporated a propensity model that would include emotional factors, structural factors (e.g. how far they drive, catchment area, alternatives used and so on) as well as functional data such as published prices, paid prices, promotions, loyalty schemes).

The outcome

  • How much does the rating on the look and feel of the retail outlet have to change to result in £Xm of additional revenues/profits?
  • By how much could prices be increased whilst holding volume at the same level if we improved “Consistent Look & Feel” by 10 percentage points?
  • How would these results vary between countries?
  • Which are the most importance factors driving the decision on which outlet brand to use?

Different models were built for each country, as well as the different formats (size outlets and those offering more services as opposed to the ones with fewer services). From there we were then able to build scenarios such as:


The results gave the client the confidence to re-brand stations in 3 countries as a pilot to test the new design.